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7/9/21

US has limited options in Iraq as attacks increase



US has limited options in Iraq as attacks increase An increase in attacks against American troops and interests in Iraq and Syria is leaving the Biden administration with limited options as it seeks to set a credible deterrence without being caught in a spiral of violence with pro-Iran militias. Just this week, six attacks were launched against US troops and diplomats in Iraq and Syria, including two aimed at Ain Al Assad airbase. Two US personnel were injured in the latest of these attacks. The other assaults, using drones and rockets, hit Erbil airport, the coalition headquarters in Baghdad, a US base in eastern Syria and the Iraqi capital's Green Zone. The escalation followed last month's US strike on the Iraqi-Syrian border against a pro-Iranian Iraqi militia, killing four of its members. That strike was meant to deter further incidents after five previous attacks on US forces inside Iraq. Randa Slim, director of the Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Programme at the Middle East Institute, sees the current escalation by Iraqi militias as directly related to the stalled nuclear talks with Iran. “This is related to current snags in the nuclear talks in Vienna. The attacks on US forces in Iraq and increasingly in Syria have always been part of Tehran’s negotiation leverage on the nuclear file,” Ms Slim told The National. The US has engaged in six indirect rounds of talks with Iran on the nuclear issue, but no breakthrough that grants Tehran sanctions relief has been achieved. A seventh round is expected in the coming weeks. The other overarching objective for Tehran is terminating the US military presence in Iraq and Syria, added Ms Slim. But against the surge in attacks, Washington has few good options, she added, "given the weak government partner it has in Baghdad". Ms Slim saw three options for the Biden team: continuing to respond to the attacks, with the risk of being trapped in an “escalation spiral” with the militias and Tehran; improving communication with the Iraqi people so they know to pin the blame for the violence on the Iraqi militias and Iran; and linking sanctions relief for Tehran to stopping attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Iran has continuously rejected this linkage.


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